Analysis of carbon pricing impacts on Singapore using system dynamics

Abstract

Global warming, which is caused mainly by concentrating greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere, has been widely accepted. Carbon pricing, including carbon tax and carbon emission market, is the major way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This thesis will first investigate Singapore?s three major GHG emitters. Then a system dynamics model about Singapore GHG emissions will be built and projections of future Singapore carbon emissions at business-as-usual scenario will be given. Carbon tax, which can be reference from other taxes? mature mechanism, has advantages to implement. An extended system dynamics model will be established to quantify carbon tax impacts on Singapore society and economy. Trade-offs between Singapore economic performance and emission reduction target will be discussed and a proper carbon tax rate will be proposed. This research will also focus on the carbon emission market, which can be a long-term option for Singapore zero carbon plan.