INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS UNDER DEEP UNCERTAINTY

Abstract

This thesis presents an overarching framework that can support decision making under deep uncertainty. It starts with the existing adaptation tipping points and adaptation pathways approaches and extends them by means of a Real Options Valuation. A Real Options Valuation is a tool that can quantify, in economic units; the flexibility generated from using adaptive approaches. A detailed methodology for applying real options in the context of water resources management is discussed in this study. Thereafter, the developed pathway map is post-processed to select a subset of preferred pathways by means of informal and formal sequencing approaches namely the “Build Up” and “Build to Target” approaches. Finally, multi objective genetic algorithms are used to computationally support the design and sub-selection of the preferred pathways. The overarching framework is exemplified by means of two case studies. They are both focused on flood management; however they differ in size and geographical location.