SPATIAL EVALUATION OF THE EFFECTS OF HUMAN, LIVESTOCK AND WILDLIFE SYSTEMS ON INFECTIOUS DISEASE EMERGENCE: IMPLICATIONS FOR SURVEILLANCE AND MANAGEMENT

Abstract

Emergence of zoonotic infectious diseases has health, social, and economic implications for human populations. Hosts and reservoirs for zoonoses are diverse and come from different taxa. Areas of high biodiversity may be sources for new pathogens for humans. Understanding of spatial and temporal patterns of where interactions may occur between human and animal populations will give insights for surveillance and planning for eventual outbreaks. The research aims of this dissertation were to assess spatially explicit emerging infectious disease (EID) probabilities at the national level across the globe, assess emergency funding resource gaps, investigate routes for through which air travel facilitates disease transfer, and project changes in the probabilities of EID occurrence events relating to changes in livestock density in Africa through 2050. In this dissertation, modeling studies were conducted with aims to identify what socioeconomic and ecological variables may predict infectious disease emergence and how they may interact to lead to future emergence events.