Conventionally defeated but not eradicated: Asian arms networks and the potential for the return of tamil militancy in Sri Lanka

Abstract

This article analyzes the previous and current dynamics of the arms trafficking network of the former Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Asia and its relevance for the post-conflict situation in Sri Lanka. It also analyzes some of the leading western theories on civil war and determines their relevance in this specific theater. Further analysis is provided regarding the state of the Tamil diaspora as well as the remainder of the LTTE's financial network. This article argues that the governments in Asia that house key sources of weaponry and other supplies for violent nonstate actors do not seem either willing or able to take any kind of meaningful action against these illicit markets aside from making occasional high-profile arrests. Further, key former LTTE financiers continue to reside in several western countries and many remain willing to underwrite arms smuggling operations in Asia, provided that there are effective managers. Given these realities combined with a nascent government-in-exile that continues to espouse the LTTE's raison d'être, the insurgency in Sri Lanka could reignite quicker and more intensely than most think if current political and demographic trends are not reversed and force levels of the Sri Lankan military cannot be sustained. However, any new Tamil militant groups would likely look quite different from their LTTE predecessors. © 2011 Taylor & Francis.