AN INTEGRATED MULTI-CRITERIA SCREENING FRAMEWORK TO ANALYZE FLEXIBILITY IN ENGINEERING SYSTEMS DESIGN: APPLICATIONS IN LNG INFRASTRUCTURES

Abstract

This thesis presents a novel integrated multi-criteria screening framework to analyze flexibility in the conceptual design of complex engineering systems. The proposed methodology aims to address two main issues in the evaluation of flexible systems design: 1) the computational intensity of exhaustively exploring the flexible design solutions because of different types of flexibility inherent in the systems design and 2) the multiple and possibly conflicting criteria inherent in the collaborative decision-making process of the design. The proposed screening framework based on meta-modelling and computing budget allocation is applied to real-world capital-intensive projects in on-shore LNG supply chain systems design. Results indicate that the screening models offers better performance than a full exhaustive search of the design space in terms of the number of evaluations and simulation runtime, while providing adequate design solutions in terms of lifecycle performance with respect to decision-makers? preferences.