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https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9876.2005.05383.x
Title: | Semiparametric estimation of the duration of immunity from infectious disease time series: Influenza as a case-study | Authors: | Xia, Y. Gog, J.R. Grenfell, B.T. |
Keywords: | Dynamical models in epidemics Generalized partially linear single-index model Immunity Influenza Kernel smoother Susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible model |
Issue Date: | 2005 | Citation: | Xia, Y., Gog, J.R., Grenfell, B.T. (2005). Semiparametric estimation of the duration of immunity from infectious disease time series: Influenza as a case-study. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statistics 54 (3) : 659-672. ScholarBank@NUS Repository. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9876.2005.05383.x | Abstract: | An important epidemiological problem is to estimate the decay through time of immunity following infection. For this purpose, we propose a semiparametric time series epidemic model that is based on the mechanism of the susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible system to analyse complex time series data. We develop an estimation method for the model. Simulations show that the approach proposed can capture the non-linearity of epidemics as well as estimate the decay of immunity. We apply our approach to influenza in France and the Netherlands and show a rapid decline in immunity following infection, which agrees with recent spatiotemporal analyses. © 2005 Royal Statistical Society. | Source Title: | Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statistics | URI: | http://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/handle/10635/105353 | ISSN: | 00359254 | DOI: | 10.1111/j.1467-9876.2005.05383.x |
Appears in Collections: | Staff Publications |
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