Practical inverse approach for forecasting nonlinear hydrological time series

Abstract

This paper presents a practical inverse approach for forecasting nonlinear hydrological time series. The proposed approach involves: (1) calibrating the delay time, embedding dimension and number of nearest neighbors simultaneously using a single definite criterion, namely, optimum prediction accuracy; (2) verifying that the optimal parameters have wider applicability outside the scope of calibration; and (3) demonstrating that chaotic behavior is present when optimal parameters are used in conjunctions with existing system characterization tools. The proposed approach was shown to be better than the standard approach for a theoretical chaotic time series (Mackey-Glass) and two real runoff time series (Tryggevaelde catchment in Denmark and Altamaha river at Doctortown, Ga.).