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Title: Trading activity and price reversals in futures markets
Authors: Wang, C. 
Yu, M.
Keywords: Futures markets
Open interest
Price reversals
Trading volume
Issue Date: 2004
Citation: Wang, C., Yu, M. (2004). Trading activity and price reversals in futures markets. Journal of Banking and Finance 28 (6) : 1337-1361. ScholarBank@NUS Repository.
Abstract: We use the standard contrarian portfolio approach to examine short-horizon return predictability in 24 US futures markets. We find strong evidence of weekly return reversals, similar to the findings from equity market studies. When interacting between past returns and lagged changes in trading activity (volume and/or open interest), we find that the profits to contrarian portfolio strategies are, on average, positively associated with lagged changes in trading volume, but negatively related to lagged changes in open interest. We also show that futures return predictability is more pronounced if interacting between past returns and lagged changes in both volume and open interest. Our results suggest that futures market overreaction exists, and both past prices and trading activity contain useful information about future market movements. These findings have implications for futures market efficiency and are useful for futures market participants, particularly commodity pool operators. © 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Source Title: Journal of Banking and Finance
ISSN: 03784266
DOI: 10.1016/S0378-4266(03)00120-1
Appears in Collections:Staff Publications

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