We did the right thing: an intervention analysis approach to modeling intervened SARS propagation in Singapore.

Abstract

In this paper, we adopt the Intervention Analysis approach to model an intervened natural process, i.e., propagation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Singapore, which is affected not only by its own evolutionary history but also by the control measures taken. Using this model, the propagation trend of the epidemic and the effects of different control measures on the outcomes of this epidemic can be simulated and quantitatively analyzed. Based on the model, we have performed an evaluation and sensitivity analysis of the Singapore government's responses to this epidemic. Preliminary results have shown that the control measures taken are effective in controlling the outbreak.