QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS FOR FIRE IN URBAN ROAD TUNNELS

Abstract

Road tunnels are critical transportation infrastructures. However, the safe operation of road tunnels is of the utmost concern, due to the heavy traffic that urban road tunnels carry. Accordingly, quantitative risk analysis (including risk assessment and control/management) has become an explicit requirement under the European Union Directive (2004/54/EC) and the Project Safety Review Manual in Singapore. In this dissertation, we first propose a risk assessment model for Singapore¿s road tunnels (QRAM-I). Further, in consideration of the parameter uncertainty of QRAM-I, a hybrid Monte Carlo simulation-based approach is proposed to propagate the parameter uncertainty in QRAM-II. Two studies concerning risk control/management are also conducted on the basis of the above two risk assessment models: a risk impact analysis methodology is proposed to examine the effects of traffic flows on risk control; an optimization model is proposed to select optimal combinations of tunnel safety provisions.