Uncertainty Analysis of Ground Movement Induced by Deep Excavation.

Abstract

Presently, empirical equations, semi-empirical equations or closed-form analytical equations are normally required in the serviceability reliability-based design approach for estimating the excavation-induced ground movements. An updated database on excavation-induced ground movement from previous studies was investigated and summarized in this study. The accuracy of various prediction methods were examined using measured data. The comparison results show that, Mobilized Strength Design method (MSD) seems to provide the most reasonable fit to measured lateral wall deflections. However, its associated uncertainties are necessary and need to be quantified. The model errors or bias factors arising from different designed parameters were characterized using data generated from finite element analysis. Model validation using both field and finite element data shows that, the purposed probabilistic model is useful. Finally, a reasonable framework for quantifying the model errors and uncertainties of the selected ground movement prediction method can be established from this study.