BUS BUNCHING IN URBAN PUBLIC TRANSPORT SERVICES: INFLUENTIAL FACTORS ANALYSIS AND ALLEVIATION STRATEGIES

Abstract

The phenomenon of bus bunching, where buses dispatched at even intervals end up together due to varying traffic conditions, undermines the schedule reliability, passenger experience, and operational efficiency. Existing literature lacks a comprehensive correlation between the traffic factors and bus bunching. This thesis defines the stop-level bunching frequency and introduces a simulation-based approach to assess the impact of traffic factors, which are identified to be the intersection signals, traffic volume, and passenger demand. The research then proposes a Short-turning Bus Schedule Design (SBSD) model using microscopic traffic simulation to minimize passenger waiting time and operating costs. A surrogate optimization algorithm is employed to solve the complex MINLP model. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the SBSD in improving objectives within a reasonable timeframe. This thesis bridges the gap between bus bunching occurrence and traffic conditions monitoring, offering a practical approach for planners to mitigate bunching in dense urban settings.