Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17165911
Title: Space-Time Patterns, Change, and Propagation of COVID-19 Risk Relative to the Intervention Scenarios in Bangladesh
Authors: Masrur, Arif
Yu, Manzhu
Luo, Wei 
Dewan, Ashraf
Keywords: Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Environmental Sciences
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
SARS-CoV-2
COVID-19
coronavirus
infectious disease surveillance
emerging space-time pattern
disease tracking and monitoring
SaTScan
LANDSCAN
DYNAMICS
CHINA
Issue Date: 1-Feb-2020
Publisher: MDPI
Citation: Masrur, Arif, Yu, Manzhu, Luo, Wei, Dewan, Ashraf (2020-02-01). Space-Time Patterns, Change, and Propagation of COVID-19 Risk Relative to the Intervention Scenarios in Bangladesh. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 17 (16). ScholarBank@NUS Repository. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17165911
Abstract: The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to be a significant public health threat worldwide, particularly in densely populated countries such as Bangladesh with inadequate health care facilities. While early detection and isolation were identified as important non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) measures for containing the disease spread, this may not have been pragmatically implementable in developing countries due to social and economic reasons (i.e., poor education, less public awareness, massive unemployment). Hence, to elucidate COVID-19 transmission dynamics with respect to the NPI status-e.g., social distancing-this study conducted spatio-temporal analysis using the prospective scanning statistic at district and sub-district levels in Bangladesh and its capital, Dhaka city, respectively. Dhaka megacity has remained the highest-risk "active" cluster since early April. Lately, the central and south eastern regions in Bangladesh have been exhibiting a high risk of COVID-19 transmission. The detected space-time progression of COVID-19 infection suggests that Bangladesh has experienced a community-level transmission at the early phase (i.e., March, 2020), primarily introduced by Bangladeshi citizens returning from coronavirus epicenters in Europe and the Middle East. Potential linkages exist between the violation of NPIs and the emergence of new higher-risk clusters over the post-incubation periods around Bangladesh. Novel insights into the COVID-19 transmission dynamics derived in this study on Bangladesh provide important policy guidelines for early preparations and pragmatic NPI measures to effectively deal with infectious diseases in resource-scarce countries worldwide.
Source Title: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH
URI: https://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/handle/10635/229295
ISSN: 16617827
16604601
DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17165911
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