UNDERSTANDING THE DYNAMICS OF FOREST CHANGE IN THE HIMALAYAS

Abstract

Conservation of existing forests and continued expansion of forest cover in a vast landscape requires a detailed understanding of the processes that drive forest gain and loss. By combining qualitative and quantitative methods, I first identified the key proximate and underlying drivers of forest change in the Himalayas. I then developed a causal network to capsulize and visualize the relationships between said drivers. Based on this analysis, I recommended five thematic policy targets to curtail forest loss and promote recovery in the landscape. Second, I quantified the temporal and spatial patterns of forest change across the Himalayas from 1992 to 2018 and identified regions of intense change. I also showed that some biome types are disproportionally targeted for forest change and lack formal protection. Third, I determined how forest gain and loss drivers vary across the Himalayas. I identified which drivers were dominant and how the direction of their association with forest gain and loss fluctuated across the landscape. The findings from this chapter can support the development of region-specific interventions for halting forest loss and promoting forest gain. Overall, this thesis demonstrates how a suite of qualitative and quantitative methods can be used to decipher complex dynamics of land cover change processes at large spatial scales. The findings from this thesis can support forest conservation decisions for long term forest recovery in the Himalayas.