DETERMINING THE ENERGY PERFORMANCE GAP FOR SINGAPORE TO SUPPORT THE 1.5°C PATHWAY

Abstract

Earth’s average surface temperature has risen to unprecedented levels since the late 19th century. Most climate scientists agree that this rise in global warming trends is the result of anthropogenic activity like fossil fuel combustion, which have increased greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere. Thus, the landmark Paris agreement was formed in 2015 among the parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change. Under this agreement, countries pledge to keep global temperature rise well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5°C.

Singapore’s commitment under the Paris agreement is to reduce its emissions intensity by 36% from 2005 levels by 2030, and stabilise its emissions with the aim of peaking around 2030. In the shorter term, Singapore will also aim to reduce emissions by 16% below 2020 business-as-usual (BAU) levels. However, there are limited studies that quantify the effect of implemented environmental strategies on Singapore’s overall emissions intensity. Also, even though buildings are major emitters of GHG, little attempts have been made to investigate the energy performance gap between target levels and BAU levels in 2030.

The main method of research conducted for this study is a literature review. Through forecasting based on current trends, it was found that Singapore would be able to meet its emissions intensity target by 2030. Additionally, an analysis of the building sector’s energy use revealed that there is still a substantial gap between target levels and BAU levels. Hence, more policies should be carried out to increase energy efficiency of buildings.