Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/handle/10635/223474
Title: APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT APPROACH ON RETROFIT PLAN TO GO FROM GREEN MARK PLATINUM TO NET-ZERO � CASE STUDY: NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE VENTUS BUILDING.
Authors: WANG, XIN
Keywords: Building
PFM
Project and Facilities Management
2018/2019 PFM
Risk assessment
Performance gap
Probability distribution
Monte Carlo Technique
Energy efficiency
Retrofit Measures
Sensitivity analysis
Building modelling & simulation  
Adrian Chong
Issue Date: 27-May-2019
Citation: WANG, XIN (2019-05-27). APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT APPROACH ON RETROFIT PLAN TO GO FROM GREEN MARK PLATINUM TO NET-ZERO � CASE STUDY: NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE VENTUS BUILDING.. ScholarBank@NUS Repository.
Abstract: The performance gap between predicted and actual energy use intensity (EUI) has been observed in many energy efficiency projects. This gap is mainly contributed by the uncertainties associated with the retrofit design, construction and operation of the building. However, the lack of a risk assessment on these uncertainties could be one of the reasons that impedes the growth of energy efficient building. Therefore, this paper proposes a simulation-based probabilistic method of risk assessment to evaluate the EUI of a retrofit project. The effectiveness of this approach was tested through assessing the risks in a Net Zero Energy Building retrofit plan on an office building. In the case study, sensitivity analysis and probabilistic analysis were conducted to identify five most influential parameters that contribute to the uncertainties and assigned them with a probability distribution respectively. Next, Monte Carlo simulation techniques with random sampling were used to generate 10,000 input parameter combinations and translate the risk from this input to output parameters via simulation in DesignBuilder. The output (energy use intensity) was analyzed using curve-fitting techniques to find a best-fit distribution. The outcome of this study showed that the simulated EUI after retrofit follows Gamma probability distribution with a mean value of 25848.81KWh. As compared to the predicted energy performance (-4811.9kWh), there is a performance gap of 30660.35kWh per year. Besides, the probability of EUI that meet net zero targets is less than 10%, and the risk of failure in the retrofit plan with 10% tolerance in a deviation between predicted and actual EUI is 58%.
URI: https://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/handle/10635/223474
Appears in Collections:Bachelor's Theses

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