AIR QUALITY IMPROVEMENT AND GREENHOUSE GAS MITIGATION IN PAKISTAN: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH

Abstract

The general objective of the study is to establish a linkage between both the energy (Pakistan Integrated Energy Model - Pak-IEM) and environment (Greenhouse gas and Air pollution INteractions and Synergies - GAINS) models. With this framework, the energy outputs of Pak-IEM could be fed into GAINS for exploring different emission and control strategy scenarios, to seek maximum co-benefits between air pollution control and greenhouse gas mitigation and to support air quality and climate change policy formulation in Pakistan. Prior to this research, the activity data projected until 2030 under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario for different sectors (energy, mobile, agriculture, industry etc.) implemented in the current version of GAINS model for Pakistan were inconsistent. A strong basis for energy projections now exists in Pakistan, as a result of the development of the Pak-IEM that can provide energy projections for all sectors, as a fully integrated systems model, and could underpin the GAINS analysis for Pakistan. This report focuses primarily on developing a reference emission scenario in GAINS based on the reference energy scenario generated by Pak-IEM, mainly to assess emissions of three air pollutants (SO2, NOx and PM2.5) and one greenhouse gas (CO2) as well as the health and vegetation impacts of increased emissions with an aim to develop a framework for identifying cost-effective strategies to mitigate air pollution and GHG emissions in Pakistan under co-benefits approach. It also analyzes a technology based alternative “Advanced Emission Control Technology (AECT)” scenario that takes into account the uniform application of advanced end-of pipe emission control technologies in comparison with a baseline case. “Baseline Emission Projections (BEP)” scenario shows a growth in emissions of SO2, NOx and PM2.5 by a factor of 2.4, 2.2 and 2.5 between 2007 and 2030. In terms of health impacts, by 2030 annual mean concentrations of fine particles (PM2.5) would increase to more than 150 μg/m3 in some parts of Punjab region, for which loss in statistical life expectancy is calculated to increase from 30-60 months in 2007 up to 60-100 months in 2030 on average. The number of total Years Of Life Lost (YOLLs) due to outdoor pollution will increase from 4 years in 2007 to 8 years in 2030. In contrast to air pollution, CO2 emissions will increase by a factor of 2.3 from 120 metric tons (Mt) in 2007 to 270 Mt in 2030. The AECT (Advanced Emission Control Technology) scenario estimates reductions in PM2.5 concentration from more than 150 μg/m3 to around 50-100 μg/m3 and the loss in statistical life expectancy from range of 60-100 months in the baseline case to 30-60 months in 2030. Moreover, SO2, NOx and PM2.5 emissions could be lowered by 59%, 83% and 89% respectively in 2030 as compared to 2007 estimates in the BEP scenario.