EXAMINING HOUSING MARKET RESILIENCE

Abstract

This dissertation examines the resilience of the Singapore housing market by looking at how well neighborhood house prices have performed over recession periods between 1995 and 2020. The main contribution of this dissertation is to provide a renewed understanding of each district’s private housing market using empirical evidence. Using a panel VAR, I find that prime districts do not possess the level of resilience that is in line with our conventional knowledge of the housing districts. These districts turned out to be more susceptible to common economic shocks such as Gross Domestic Product Growth Per Capita and prime lending rates, albeit the higher wealth effects in the area. Conversely, districts that are more secluded and off-centered present with larger capacity to grow in resilience, especially after the Global Financial Crisis where these districts overtook the city core districts in resilience measurements. It is speculated that the increased capacity for growth of resilience comes from the potential of urban growth and renewal of the districts, which is largely absent from the city core due to the government’s land plans to decentralize the business district. This implies that our conventional knowledge of the housing districts may be outdated, and thus there could be a need to reassess the districts based on current conditions.