REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS IN SINGAPORE : PREDICTABLE?

Abstract

This study seeks to uncover the applicability of using technical analysis to predict Singapore Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) price movements by observing each counter’s daily adjusted closing prices.

Random walk models such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin tests are used as basic stochastic tests for a non-stationarity of the daily prices of all listed REITs in the SGX (S-REITs). Analyzing the data series of 20 individual trusts from 17th July 2002 to 10th May 2009, it is observed that S-REITs generally follow a random walk as suggested by the Efficient Market Hypothesis.

The study’s findings imply that investors looking to venture in this new investment vehicle should not adhere to using technical analysis when developing investment decisions to gain abnormal profits. It also informs S-REIT managers that current REIT prices on the SGX efficiently reflect all information in the market rather than gaining source from historical prices. Furthermore, since current prices are not a reflection of the past, it follows that REIT price movements do not strictly follow any trend or cycle.