SOARING VOLUME OF PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS DURING FINANCIAL CRISIS 2008/2009

Abstract

This paper is motivated by the sustainable volume of private residential transactions in Singapore albeit its spike in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008/2009. Various correlation relationships among several indices of interest are established. It is found that the private housing market is able to track the domestic common stock market and is correlated with the volume of private housing transactions. The economy’s composite leading index and the common stock market index show that movements in the overall economy and the stock market directly affect the private housing market’s wealth sentiment. In addition, the price gap relationship between private residential prices and the public housing resale prices shows that as the price band narrows, it directly affects the pricing and affordability of housing purchases. The ordinary least-square (OLS) multiple regression analysis (MRA) model is estimated, together with autoregressive error correction, to examine the structural and dynamic relationships for private residential transaction volumes. This model has a good fit of about 70% and it finds that the coefficient of the composite leading index is positively signed and significant. Coefficient of the HDB resale price index is negatively signed and significant. The increase in transaction volume leads to a decrease in the HDB index as more mass-market upgraders emerge from the public to the private housing markets, which eventually increases the HDB supply in the short run. Coefficient of the private residential price index is negatively signed and significant while the coefficient of the private residential supply is negatively signed and significant. An increase in the transactions volume means an increase in demand and a drop in the supply of private housing.