CHAOS OF URBAN GROWTH : A STUDY OF URBAN GROWTH VIA COMPLEXITY THEORY

Abstract

The observation of a well defined and often decaying urban core coexisting with rather random and organic urban sprawls calls for new urban theories that could explain the unintended emergence in urban growth. Complexity theory comes into the picture as one of the alternative thinking process to both understand and predict the urban growth process according to its non-linear and non-equilibrium ethics. The paper dedicates itself towards the discovery of the relationship between the complexity theory and urban growth, and conjectures upon the notion that complexity theory may become a viable candidate to inform and to predict future urban growth. The urban growth pattern is studied as a product of the planning practice inherited from the Industrial Revolution era. Complexity theory was understood through its basic ethics which are hallmarks of next generation science. The historical background responsible for the current urban growth pattern and the theoretical basis of the complexity theory are studied through literature review and analysis. The paper probes against its conjecture by looking at emergent organic urban sprawls and analyzing the use of urban growth simulation models derived from complexity theory. The success of the computational models is further anticipated by nonexhaustive illustrations of other existing applications. The paper ends with the conclusion that not only in theory could complexity theory support the 19th century approach to govern urban growth, it could also derive models to simulate the future of urban growth embodying the true ethic of the new generation science and the nonlinear reality. Urban growth could also be considered as a phenomenon governed by complexity theory.