Dynamics of Zika Transmission in Singapore

Abstract

Ministry of Health has reported a localised spread of Zika virus infection in Singapore on 28 August 2016. Having known about the intensity of Zika infections in other parts of the world, it is important to understand and model the dynamics of Zika infection in Singapore from System dynamics perspective, as it not only helps to qualitatively and quantitatively understand the interconnections and inter-dependencies between various actors that would influence Zika infection; but, also offers potential to use these models as test beds for testing various public health policies, before actually implementing them on ground. Hence, the objective of this paper to model the dynamics of Zika infection transmission in Singapore, primarily via mosquito vectors using the tools of Systems Dynamics. There are two major sectors in the proposed model, namely mosquitoes sector and human sector. The dynamics of disease spread within and between these sectors are modelled following the classical Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered model structure.