SCANNING THE MEKONG RIVER’S HORIZONS: HOW MIGHT HYDROPOWER DAMS ALONG THE RIVER ALTER THE COURSE OF INTERSTATE RELATIONS ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTHEAST ASIA?

Abstract

Since the mid-2000s, a rapid proliferation of hydropower dams along the mainstream of the Mekong River in China and the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Laos) has raised tensions amongst countries in mainland Southeast Asia. Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam share the Lower Mekong Basin, and across these four states over 65 million people are dependent onthe River’s regular hydrological cycles for water, food, and energy security. With up to 40% of the Mekong River’s lower reaches being fed from high-volume seasonal rainfall in Laos’ mountainous regions, the landlocked country’s plans to build as many as 9 dams across the mainstream of the River has alarmed its downstream neighbours. As of February 2020, neither the sharply rising pressure (both domestic and international) against the construction of these Laotian dams, nor incidences of major droughts in all four riparian countries, has eradicated the region’s appetite for hydropower development. This puzzle lies at the core of my thesis. In this project, I seek to achieve three objectives: first, I intend to establish that the sheer scope and magnitude of the hydropower dams’ impacts on mainland Southeast Asia’s geography will be significant enough to shift the region’s socio-economic dynamics. Second, I will investigate the political drivers behind the retention of these highly contentious hydropower projects on the development agendas of countries in mainland Southeast Asia and China. These initial stages will aid this project in identifying the environmental and political factors capable of reshaping the political fabric of the region. Finally, I will incorporate these factors in a foresight methodological framework, derived from the UK Government’s Future Toolkit. This will help me produce two scenarios comprising possible events that might occur in the region’s future, as a result of the proliferation of dams along the Mekong’s mainstream, which could change the interstate relations amongst Mekong riparian states.