Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/handle/10635/192023
Title: | THINKING THROUGH UNCERTAINTY: THE EFFECT OF RANDOMIZED AIDS ON THE DISJUNCTION EFFECT | Authors: | JOY PEH YIN KAI | Keywords: | Uncertainty Contingent reasoning Disjunction effect Randomized devices Prisoners dilemma Decision making |
Issue Date: | 2-Nov-2020 | Citation: | JOY PEH YIN KAI (2020-11-02). THINKING THROUGH UNCERTAINTY: THE EFFECT OF RANDOMIZED AIDS ON THE DISJUNCTION EFFECT. ScholarBank@NUS Repository. | Abstract: | This study presents the first exploration of whether randomized aids could alleviate failures in contingent reasoning, specifically the disjunction effect observed by Shafir and Tversky (1992) in one-shot prisoner’s dilemma. I conduct a randomized controlled experiment whereby treatment subjects consider a random suggestion on what action they should choose - to defect or to cooperate - prior to making their decision in every game. The results support the hypothesis that treatment helps individuals to think through uncertainty; namely, while treatment had a negligible effect when the other player’s strategy was known, the effect of treatment became more significant only when the other player’s strategy was unknown, reducing cooperation by 9 percentage points relative to the control group. Consequently, the disjunction effect was attenuated in the treatment group. The results suggest that the randomized aid facilitates some form of contingent reasoning, possibly by simplifying the complexity of contingent thinking or prompting individuals to reason consequentially. | URI: | https://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/handle/10635/192023 |
Appears in Collections: | Bachelor's Theses |
Show full item record
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | Access Settings | Version | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joy Peh Yin Kai AY2021 Sem 1.pdf | 444.64 kB | Adobe PDF | RESTRICTED | None | Log In |
Google ScholarTM
Check
Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.