Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanwpc.2020.100004
DC Field | Value | |
---|---|---|
dc.title | Modelling lockdown and exit strategies for COVID-19 in Singapore | |
dc.contributor.author | DICKENS, BORAME SUE LEE | |
dc.contributor.author | Koo, JR | |
dc.contributor.author | LIM JUE TAO | |
dc.contributor.author | PARK MINAH | |
dc.contributor.author | SHARON ESI DUODUWA QUAYE | |
dc.contributor.author | SUN HAOYANG | |
dc.contributor.author | SUN YINXIAOHE | |
dc.contributor.author | Pung, R | |
dc.contributor.author | Wilder-Smith, A | |
dc.contributor.author | CHAI YI ANN,LOUIS | |
dc.contributor.author | VERNON LEE JIAN MING | |
dc.contributor.author | COOK,ALEXANDER RICHARD | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-05-06T01:58:49Z | |
dc.date.available | 2021-05-06T01:58:49Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2020-08-01 | |
dc.identifier.citation | DICKENS, BORAME SUE LEE, Koo, JR, LIM JUE TAO, PARK MINAH, SHARON ESI DUODUWA QUAYE, SUN HAOYANG, SUN YINXIAOHE, Pung, R, Wilder-Smith, A, CHAI YI ANN,LOUIS, VERNON LEE JIAN MING, COOK,ALEXANDER RICHARD (2020-08-01). Modelling lockdown and exit strategies for COVID-19 in Singapore. The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific 1 : 100004-100004. ScholarBank@NUS Repository. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanwpc.2020.100004 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 2666-6065 | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/handle/10635/190905 | |
dc.description.abstract | Background: With at least 94 countries undergoing or exiting lockdowns for contact suppression to control the COVID-19 outbreak, sustainable and public health-driven exit strategies are required. Here we explore the impact of lockdown and exit strategies in Singapore for immediate planning. Methods: We use an agent-based model to examine the impacts of epidemic control over 480 days. A limited control baseline of case isolation and household member quarantining is used. We measure the impact of lockdown duration and start date on final infection attack sizes. We then apply a 3-month gradual exit strategy, immediately re-opening schools and easing workplace distancing measures, and compare this to long-term social distancing measures. Findings: At baseline, we estimated 815 400 total infections (21.6% of the population). Early lockdown at 5 weeks with no exit strategy averted 18 500 (2.27% of baseline averted), 21 300 (2.61%) and 22 400 (2.75%) infections for 6, 8 and 9-week lockdown durations. Using the exit strategy averted a corresponding 114 700, 121 700 and 126 000 total cases, representing 12.07–13.06% of the total epidemic size under baseline. This diminishes to 9 900–11 300 for a late 8-week start time. Long-term social distancing at 6 and 8-week durations are viable but less effective. Interpretation: Gradual release exit strategies are critical to maintain epidemic suppression under a new normal. We present final infection attack sizes assuming the ongoing importation of cases, which require preparation for a potential second epidemic wave due to ongoing epidemics elsewhere. Funding: Singapore Ministry of Health, Singapore Population Health Improvement Centre. | |
dc.publisher | Elsevier BV | |
dc.source | Elements | |
dc.subject | SARS-CoV-2 | |
dc.subject | Modeling | |
dc.subject | interventions | |
dc.type | Article | |
dc.date.updated | 2021-05-05T09:21:12Z | |
dc.contributor.department | BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES | |
dc.contributor.department | DEPT OF MEDICINE | |
dc.contributor.department | SAW SWEE HOCK SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH | |
dc.description.doi | 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2020.100004 | |
dc.description.sourcetitle | The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific | |
dc.description.volume | 1 | |
dc.description.page | 100004-100004 | |
dc.published.state | Published | |
Appears in Collections: | Staff Publications Elements |
Show simple item record
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | Access Settings | Version | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PIIS2666606520300043.pdf | Published version | 1.09 MB | Adobe PDF | OPEN | Published | View/Download |
Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.