AN ANALYSIS OF SINGAPORE'S EXTERNAL TRADE IN THE LIGHT OF THE NEW (1988) INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES

Abstract

This dissertation aims to reassess the crucial role of exports that underpins Singapore's remarkable growth performance in the last three decades in the light of the estimated and updated series of "net domestic" (i.e. made-in-Singapore) commodity export data. Unlike published trade statistics, the amount of import content is netted in these data so as to reveal true value added of exports. The import content of both the manufacturing and service exports is found to be rising over the years. With a redefinition of entrepot, Singapore is still very much a re-export economy. By employing a demand-constrained growth accounting model, the "sources" of growth are determined. It confirms previous findings that Singapore's growth is export-led. The theoretical justification for such a methodology is rooted in a much neglected demand-side theory of growth by Young and Currie. Singapore's factor intensity in trade and her evolution of comparative advantage are also discussed. The concluding section is a synopsis of the key findings in this study. Some policy implications are also discussed and critically evaluated. Future directions of research are also suggested. To recapitulate, both quantitative and qualitative evidence are furnished in this study to reinforce the prima facie case that Singapore is indeed a demand-constrained and export-driven economy.