POPULATION POLICY ALTERNATIVES FOR SINGAPORE : WHAT THE TRENDS SUGGEST

Abstract

The purpose of this academic exercise is to analyze the effects of the changing population policies in Singapore during the period 1966-1996. During the early 60s, high population growth rates that resulted from high fertility rates was the main concern of the government. Hence, anti-natalist policy resolved to tackle this problem. However, since the mid 1980s, the government has been concerned about the rapid fertility decline and its implications on the nation's population and economic growth. This exercise provides an account of the demographic transition of Singapore for 1947-1996 (Chapter 1). In addition, the demographic trend is analyzed for a better understanding of how the various population policies have affected Singapore's population growth. Because Singapore's demographic transition is similar to that of developed countries, especially the European countries, Chapter 2 discusses the effectiveness of pro-natalism in these countries. In Chapter 3, some of the more prominent fertility theories are reviewed and they serve as a framework for the analysis of Singapore's demographic transition in this academic exercise. Singapore has undergone two major shifts in its population policies implemented- from an anti-natalistic approach to an eugenic one ( of a selective pro-natalistic nature). Chapter 4 examines the different population policies and their impact on Singapore. An analysis of the more recent trends and future population projections is provided in Chapter 5. Chapter 6 discusses the implications of the prevailing population trends and provides some policy recommendations in the context of Singapore's economy. Low replacement levels have now replaced the high fertility rates, suggesting that Singapore is likely to be faced with an aging population and will have adverse effects on the economic growth in terms of labor supply and productivity level in the near future. Therefore, the government must make further changes to the existing pro-natalist policies. Besides the continuation of the fiscal and non-fiscal incentives, programs and measures to serve the needs of the aged must be further implemented. There must be sufficient people in the workforce to sustain economic growth in Singapore. Thus, the next population policy alternative to meet this economic requirement in the long run will be to increase the population through selective immigration.