SINGAPORE'S LAND TRANSPORT POLICY : A REGRESSION ANALYSIS IN THE CENTRAL AREA

Abstract

The success of the integrated land transport policy adopted by the Singapore government to curb traffic congestion depends on the delicate balance and mix of policy elements. The policy elements have experienced many changes over the years to cater to the changing social trends and needs. Recent changes have indicated a shift towards a restraint in car usage, for example, the soon-to-be implemented Electronic Road Pricing System. How effective will it be? What implications does this change in emphasis hold for future transport planning? Theoretical models do yield unambiguous quantitative implications, such as an increase in road-user charges during peak-hours will act to deter motorists from driving into the central area and result in less congestion on the roads. They might even provide the basis or justification for the formulation of policies. However, policy-makers are more concerned with the likely magnitude and timing of the effects of changes in policies. In this regard, regression models offer an avenue to assess the likely impact of policy elements. They provide a quantitative basis for the comparison and evaluation of policies and the degree of emphasis to be placed on them.