Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2019.17379
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dc.titleDevelopment of Risk Prediction Equations for Incident Chronic Kidney Disease
dc.contributor.authorNelson, Robert G
dc.contributor.authorGrams, Morgan E
dc.contributor.authorBallew, Shoshana H
dc.contributor.authorSang, Yingying
dc.contributor.authorAzizi, Fereidoun
dc.contributor.authorChadban, Steven J
dc.contributor.authorChaker, Layal
dc.contributor.authorDunning, Stephan C
dc.contributor.authorFox, Caroline
dc.contributor.authorHirakawa, Yoshihisa
dc.contributor.authorIseki, Kunitoshi
dc.contributor.authorIx, Joachim
dc.contributor.authorJafar, Tazeen H
dc.contributor.authorKoettgen, Anna
dc.contributor.authorNaimark, David MJ
dc.contributor.authorOhkubo, Takayoshi
dc.contributor.authorPrescott, Gordon J
dc.contributor.authorRebholz, Casey M
dc.contributor.authorSabanayagam, Charumathi
dc.contributor.authorSairenchi, Toshimi
dc.contributor.authorSchoettker, Ben
dc.contributor.authorShibagaki, Yugo
dc.contributor.authorTonelli, Marcello
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Luxia
dc.contributor.authorGansevoort, Ron T
dc.contributor.authorMatsushita, Kunihiro
dc.contributor.authorWoodward, Mark
dc.contributor.authorCoresh, Josef
dc.contributor.authorShalev, Varda
dc.contributor.authorChalmers, John
dc.contributor.authorArima, Hisatomi
dc.contributor.authorPerkovic, Vlado
dc.contributor.authorWoodward, Mark
dc.contributor.authorCoresh, Josef
dc.contributor.authorMatsushita, Kunihiro
dc.contributor.authorGrams, Morgan
dc.contributor.authorSang, Yingying
dc.contributor.authorPolkinghorne, Kevan
dc.contributor.authorAtkins, Robert
dc.contributor.authorChadban, Steven
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Luxia
dc.contributor.authorLiu, Lisheng
dc.contributor.authorZhao, Ming-Hui
dc.contributor.authorWang, Fang
dc.contributor.authorWang, Jinwei
dc.contributor.authorTonelli, Marcello
dc.contributor.authorSacks, Frank M
dc.contributor.authorCurhan, Gary C
dc.contributor.authorShlipak, Michael
dc.contributor.authorSarnak, Mark J
dc.contributor.authorKatz, Ronit
dc.contributor.authorHiramoto, Jade
dc.contributor.authorIso, Hiroyasu
dc.contributor.authorMuraki, Isao
dc.contributor.authorYamagishi, Kazumasa
dc.contributor.authorUmesawa, Mitsumasa
dc.contributor.authorBrenner, Hermann
dc.contributor.authorSchoettker, Ben
dc.contributor.authorSaum, Kai-Uwe
dc.contributor.authorRothenbacher, Dietrich
dc.contributor.authorFox, Caroline S
dc.contributor.authorHwang, Shih-Jen
dc.contributor.authorChang, Alex R
dc.contributor.authorGreen, Jamie
dc.contributor.authorSingh, Gurmukteshwar
dc.contributor.authorKirchner, H Lester
dc.contributor.authorBlack, Corri
dc.contributor.authorMarks, Angharad
dc.contributor.authorPrescott, Gordon J
dc.contributor.authorClark, Laura
dc.contributor.authorFluck, Nick
dc.contributor.authorCirillo, Massimo
dc.contributor.authorHallan, Stein
dc.contributor.authorOvrehus, Marius
dc.contributor.authorLanglo, Knut Asbjorn
dc.contributor.authorRomundstad, Solfrid
dc.contributor.authorIrie, Fujiko
dc.contributor.authorSairenchi, Toshimi
dc.contributor.authorCorrea, Adolfo
dc.contributor.authorRebholz, Casey M
dc.contributor.authorYoung, Bessie A
dc.contributor.authorBoulware, L Ebony
dc.contributor.authorMwasongwe, Stanford
dc.contributor.authorWatanabe, Tsuyoshi
dc.contributor.authorYamagata, Kunihiro
dc.contributor.authorIseki, Kunitoshi
dc.contributor.authorAsahi, Koichi
dc.contributor.authorChodick, Gabriel
dc.contributor.authorShalev, Varda
dc.contributor.authorShlipak, Michael
dc.contributor.authorSarnak, Mark
dc.contributor.authorKatz, Ronit
dc.contributor.authorPeralta, Carmen
dc.contributor.authorBottinger, Erwin
dc.contributor.authorNadkarni, Girish N
dc.contributor.authorEllis, Stephen B
dc.contributor.authorNadukuru, Rajiv
dc.contributor.authorKenealy, Timothy
dc.contributor.authorElley, C Raina
dc.contributor.authorCollins, John F
dc.contributor.authorDrury, Paul L
dc.contributor.authorOhkubo, Takayoshi
dc.contributor.authorAsayama, Kei
dc.contributor.authorKikuya, Masahiro
dc.contributor.authorMetoki, Hirohito
dc.contributor.authorNakayama, Masaaki
dc.contributor.authorIseki, Kunitoshi
dc.contributor.authorIseki, Chiho
dc.contributor.authorNelson, Robert G
dc.contributor.authorLooker, Helen C
dc.contributor.authorKnowler, William C
dc.contributor.authorGansevoort, Ron T
dc.contributor.authorBakker, Stephan JL
dc.contributor.authorHeerspink, Hiddo JL
dc.contributor.authorBernardo, Rancho
dc.contributor.authorJassal, Simerjot K
dc.contributor.authorBergstrom, Jaclyn
dc.contributor.authorIx, Joachim H
dc.contributor.authorBarrett-Connor, Elizabeth
dc.contributor.authorKovesdy, Csaba P
dc.contributor.authorSumida, Keiichi
dc.contributor.authorKalantar-Zadeh, Kamyar
dc.contributor.authorSedaghat, Sanaz
dc.contributor.authorChaker, Layal
dc.contributor.authorIkram, M Arfan
dc.contributor.authorHoorn, Ewout J
dc.contributor.authorDehghan, Abbas
dc.contributor.authorCarrero, Juan J
dc.contributor.authorEvans, Marie
dc.contributor.authorElinder, Carl-Gustaf
dc.contributor.authorWettermark, Bjorn
dc.contributor.authorWong, Tien Y
dc.contributor.authorSabanayagam, Charumathi
dc.contributor.authorCheng, Ching-Yu
dc.contributor.authorSokor, Riswana Banu Binte Mohamed Abdul
dc.contributor.authorWen, Chi-Pang
dc.contributor.authorTsao, Chwen-Keng
dc.contributor.authorTsai, Min-Kuang
dc.contributor.authorChen, Chien-Hua
dc.contributor.authorHosseinpanah, Farhad
dc.contributor.authorHadaegh, Farzad
dc.contributor.authorAzizi, Fereidoun
dc.contributor.authorMirbolouk, Mohammadhassan
dc.contributor.authorSolbu, Marit Dahl
dc.contributor.authorEriksen, Bjorn Odvar
dc.contributor.authorJenssen, Trond Geir
dc.contributor.authorEggen, Anne Elise
dc.contributor.authorLannfelt, Lars
dc.contributor.authorLarsson, Anders
dc.contributor.authorArnlov, Johan
dc.contributor.authorBilo, Henk JG
dc.contributor.authorLandman, Gijs WD
dc.contributor.authorvan Hateren, Kornelis JJ
dc.contributor.authorKleefstra, Nanne
dc.contributor.authorDunning, Stephan C
dc.contributor.authorStempniewicz, Nikita
dc.contributor.authorCuddeback, John
dc.contributor.authorCiemins, Elizabeth
dc.contributor.authorCoresh, Josef
dc.contributor.authorGrams, Morgan E
dc.contributor.authorBallew, Shoshana H
dc.contributor.authorMatsushita, Kunihiro
dc.contributor.authorWoodward, Mark
dc.contributor.authorGansevoort, Ron T
dc.contributor.authorChang, Alex R
dc.contributor.authorHallan, Stein
dc.contributor.authorKoettgen, Anna
dc.contributor.authorKovesdy, Csaba P
dc.contributor.authorLevey, Andrew S
dc.contributor.authorShalev, Varda
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Luxia
dc.contributor.authorBallew, Shoshana H
dc.contributor.authorChen, Jingsha
dc.contributor.authorCoresh, Josef
dc.contributor.authorGrams, Morgan E
dc.contributor.authorKwak, Lucia
dc.contributor.authorMatsushita, Kunihiro
dc.contributor.authorSang, Yingying
dc.contributor.authorSurapeneni, Aditya
dc.contributor.authorWoodward, Mark
dc.date.accessioned2020-08-20T11:10:33Z
dc.date.available2020-08-20T11:10:33Z
dc.date.issued2019-12-03
dc.identifier.citationNelson, Robert G, Grams, Morgan E, Ballew, Shoshana H, Sang, Yingying, Azizi, Fereidoun, Chadban, Steven J, Chaker, Layal, Dunning, Stephan C, Fox, Caroline, Hirakawa, Yoshihisa, Iseki, Kunitoshi, Ix, Joachim, Jafar, Tazeen H, Koettgen, Anna, Naimark, David MJ, Ohkubo, Takayoshi, Prescott, Gordon J, Rebholz, Casey M, Sabanayagam, Charumathi, Sairenchi, Toshimi, Schoettker, Ben, Shibagaki, Yugo, Tonelli, Marcello, Zhang, Luxia, Gansevoort, Ron T, Matsushita, Kunihiro, Woodward, Mark, Coresh, Josef, Shalev, Varda, Chalmers, John, Arima, Hisatomi, Perkovic, Vlado, Woodward, Mark, Coresh, Josef, Matsushita, Kunihiro, Grams, Morgan, Sang, Yingying, Polkinghorne, Kevan, Atkins, Robert, Chadban, Steven, Zhang, Luxia, Liu, Lisheng, Zhao, Ming-Hui, Wang, Fang, Wang, Jinwei, Tonelli, Marcello, Sacks, Frank M, Curhan, Gary C, Shlipak, Michael, Sarnak, Mark J, Katz, Ronit, Hiramoto, Jade, Iso, Hiroyasu, Muraki, Isao, Yamagishi, Kazumasa, Umesawa, Mitsumasa, Brenner, Hermann, Schoettker, Ben, Saum, Kai-Uwe, Rothenbacher, Dietrich, Fox, Caroline S, Hwang, Shih-Jen, Chang, Alex R, Green, Jamie, Singh, Gurmukteshwar, Kirchner, H Lester, Black, Corri, Marks, Angharad, Prescott, Gordon J, Clark, Laura, Fluck, Nick, Cirillo, Massimo, Hallan, Stein, Ovrehus, Marius, Langlo, Knut Asbjorn, Romundstad, Solfrid, Irie, Fujiko, Sairenchi, Toshimi, Correa, Adolfo, Rebholz, Casey M, Young, Bessie A, Boulware, L Ebony, Mwasongwe, Stanford, Watanabe, Tsuyoshi, Yamagata, Kunihiro, Iseki, Kunitoshi, Asahi, Koichi, Chodick, Gabriel, Shalev, Varda, Shlipak, Michael, Sarnak, Mark, Katz, Ronit, Peralta, Carmen, Bottinger, Erwin, Nadkarni, Girish N, Ellis, Stephen B, Nadukuru, Rajiv, Kenealy, Timothy, Elley, C Raina, Collins, John F, Drury, Paul L, Ohkubo, Takayoshi, Asayama, Kei, Kikuya, Masahiro, Metoki, Hirohito, Nakayama, Masaaki, Iseki, Kunitoshi, Iseki, Chiho, Nelson, Robert G, Looker, Helen C, Knowler, William C, Gansevoort, Ron T, Bakker, Stephan JL, Heerspink, Hiddo JL, Bernardo, Rancho, Jassal, Simerjot K, Bergstrom, Jaclyn, Ix, Joachim H, Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth, Kovesdy, Csaba P, Sumida, Keiichi, Kalantar-Zadeh, Kamyar, Sedaghat, Sanaz, Chaker, Layal, Ikram, M Arfan, Hoorn, Ewout J, Dehghan, Abbas, Carrero, Juan J, Evans, Marie, Elinder, Carl-Gustaf, Wettermark, Bjorn, Wong, Tien Y, Sabanayagam, Charumathi, Cheng, Ching-Yu, Sokor, Riswana Banu Binte Mohamed Abdul, Wen, Chi-Pang, Tsao, Chwen-Keng, Tsai, Min-Kuang, Chen, Chien-Hua, Hosseinpanah, Farhad, Hadaegh, Farzad, Azizi, Fereidoun, Mirbolouk, Mohammadhassan, Solbu, Marit Dahl, Eriksen, Bjorn Odvar, Jenssen, Trond Geir, Eggen, Anne Elise, Lannfelt, Lars, Larsson, Anders, Arnlov, Johan, Bilo, Henk JG, Landman, Gijs WD, van Hateren, Kornelis JJ, Kleefstra, Nanne, Dunning, Stephan C, Stempniewicz, Nikita, Cuddeback, John, Ciemins, Elizabeth, Coresh, Josef, Grams, Morgan E, Ballew, Shoshana H, Matsushita, Kunihiro, Woodward, Mark, Gansevoort, Ron T, Chang, Alex R, Hallan, Stein, Koettgen, Anna, Kovesdy, Csaba P, Levey, Andrew S, Shalev, Varda, Zhang, Luxia, Ballew, Shoshana H, Chen, Jingsha, Coresh, Josef, Grams, Morgan E, Kwak, Lucia, Matsushita, Kunihiro, Sang, Yingying, Surapeneni, Aditya, Woodward, Mark (2019-12-03). Development of Risk Prediction Equations for Incident Chronic Kidney Disease. JAMA-JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION 322 (21) : 2104-2114. ScholarBank@NUS Repository. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2019.17379
dc.identifier.issn00987484
dc.identifier.issn15383598
dc.identifier.urihttps://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/handle/10635/173174
dc.description.abstract© 2019 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. Importance: Early identification of individuals at elevated risk of developing chronic kidney disease (CKD) could improve clinical care through enhanced surveillance and better management of underlying health conditions. Objective: To develop assessment tools to identify individuals at increased risk of CKD, defined by reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Design, Setting, and Participants: Individual-level data analysis of 34 multinational cohorts from the CKD Prognosis Consortium including 5222711 individuals from 28 countries. Data were collected from April 1970 through January 2017. A 2-stage analysis was performed, with each study first analyzed individually and summarized overall using a weighted average. Because clinical variables were often differentially available by diabetes status, models were developed separately for participants with diabetes and without diabetes. Discrimination and calibration were also tested in 9 external cohorts (n = 2253540). Exposures: Demographic and clinical factors. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incident eGFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2. Results: Among 4441084 participants without diabetes (mean age, 54 years, 38% women), 660856 incident cases (14.9%) of reduced eGFR occurred during a mean follow-up of 4.2 years. Of 781627 participants with diabetes (mean age, 62 years, 13% women), 313646 incident cases (40%) occurred during a mean follow-up of 3.9 years. Equations for the 5-year risk of reduced eGFR included age, sex, race/ethnicity, eGFR, history of cardiovascular disease, ever smoker, hypertension, body mass index, and albuminuria concentration. For participants with diabetes, the models also included diabetes medications, hemoglobin A1c, and the interaction between the 2. The risk equations had a median C statistic for the 5-year predicted probability of 0.845 (interquartile range [IQR], 0.789-0.890) in the cohorts without diabetes and 0.801 (IQR, 0.750-0.819) in the cohorts with diabetes. Calibration analysis showed that 9 of 13 study populations (69%) had a slope of observed to predicted risk between 0.80 and 1.25. Discrimination was similar in 18 study populations in 9 external validation cohorts; calibration showed that 16 of 18 (89%) had a slope of observed to predicted risk between 0.80 and 1.25. Conclusions and Relevance: Equations for predicting risk of incident chronic kidney disease developed from more than 5 million individuals from 34 multinational cohorts demonstrated high discrimination and variable calibration in diverse populations. Further study is needed to determine whether use of these equations to identify individuals at risk of developing chronic kidney disease will improve clinical care and patient outcomes..
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherAMER MEDICAL ASSOC
dc.sourceElements
dc.subjectScience & Technology
dc.subjectLife Sciences & Biomedicine
dc.subjectMedicine, General & Internal
dc.subjectGeneral & Internal Medicine
dc.subjectRENAL-DISEASE
dc.subjectMODEL
dc.subjectCKD
dc.typeArticle
dc.date.updated2020-06-03T14:26:33Z
dc.contributor.departmentDUKE-NUS MEDICAL SCHOOL
dc.description.doi10.1001/jama.2019.17379
dc.description.sourcetitleJAMA-JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION
dc.description.volume322
dc.description.issue21
dc.description.page2104-2114
dc.published.statePublished
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