AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF ELECTIONS

Abstract

This study examines empirically the effects of various economic and non-economic factors on the vote share of the government at elections using data from general elections and by-elections from 1959 to 1992 in Singapore. Current economic conditions are found to be significant in voting decision. The voting patterns of different social groups in the economy are also identified. In addition, their voting patterns are found to have changed over time. The study covers an aggregate level time series analysis and a constituency level cross-sectional analysis. The effects of Group Representative Constituencies (GRCs) and by-election are analyzed among other issues.