IMPACT OF GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT OF THAILAND'S PORTS ON SINGAPORE, WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO THAILAND SOUTHERN SEABOARD PLAN

Abstract

Studies of port developments have largely centred on the evaluation of the costs and benefits of port investments. However few have focused on the impact arising from port developments on neighbouring ports let alone across international boundaries. The purpose of this particular study is to evaluate the possible impact of Thailand's Southern Seaboard Development Plan (SSDP), which was announced in March 1989, on Singapore's shipping and cargo movements. However, this US$15.6 billion plan has not been further developed due to the change of government in 1991. As such, other regional port developments have been included in this study. The first few chapters examine and discuss the historical and economic background of the SSDP, the proposed projects under the Plan, a literature survey on port development and the methodology to be adopted in the thesis. Following that, econometric models are constructed and the growth of the cargo and trade sectors from 1990 to the year 2010 estimated. The impact of port developments in Thailand as well as in the region will also be assessed based on the forecasted figures obtained from the econometric forecasting models. The results show that the Southern Seaboard Development Project is unlikely to have significant effects on Singapore's status as the region's and world's busiest port. However, the development of the oil refinery industry as proposed under the SSDP could affect the local oil industry. Regional development of port facilities are likely to have larger impact on containerized cargo as the reduction on the reliance of using Singapore's ports as a transshipment centre could hinder the growth of this sector. This will indeed have a substantial impact on Singapore since port revenue is significantly affected by the growth of containerized cargo. Furthermore, the incorporation of regional port developments in the study concludes that the forecast of Singapore's containerized cargo has been overestimated. This could send wrong signals and lead to over-investment in port facilities.