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Title: Modeling Inflation in Singapore: An econometric bottom-up approach
Authors: YAO JIELU
Keywords: Inflation, Singapore economy, Disaggregated bottom up
Issue Date: 14-Aug-2009
Citation: YAO JIELU (2009-08-14). Modeling Inflation in Singapore: An econometric bottom-up approach. ScholarBank@NUS Repository.
Abstract: The primary objective of monetary policy in Singapore is to achieve low inflation as a sound basis for sustained economic growth. Modeling inflation, therefore, plays a central role in formulating good monetary policy. This thesis surveys the literature on inflation modeling and employs an econometric disaggregated bottom-up approach to model the inflation in Singapore. It analyzes price behaviors of the various categories of goods and services that make up the aggregate price index by focusing on the common critical factors of labor cost, import prices and oil price, and thus demonstrates the influences of Singaporeb s international trade pattern and unique labor market on the price behaviors. We also conduct pseudo out-of-sample forecast and develop univariate benchmark to assess the forecasting accuracy. The thesis indicates that in terms of the total CPI the disaggregated bottom up model works better than the univariate model while for the subcategories of CPI the performance of the structural models depends on the specific characteristics of that subcategory.
Appears in Collections:Master's Theses (Open)

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