BALLOTS OVER BULLETS: THE EFFECT OF CONFLICT TERMINATION OUTCOMES ON SUCCESSFUL DEMOCRATIC CONSOLIDATION IN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA

Abstract

This thesis examines the effect of conflict termination outcomes on democratic consolidation. Specifically, how does the conflict termination outcome affect the chances of democratic consolidation in the post-war period? My central hypothesis is that decisive military victories by pro-democratic groups can lead to democratic consolidation. In this paper, I argue that when pro-democratic forces prevail militarily, new political norms of an aversion towards the military and respect for elections emerge that result in complete demilitarisation and hence democratic consolidation. I develop my argument through a comparative analysis of two successful cases of democratic consolidation after conflict, use the most dissimilar research design to study the cases of Costa Rica and Panama, using the most dissimilar research design.