DURABILITY OF COMPETITIVE AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES: UNDERSTANDING UMNO'S COLLAPSE AND PAP'S CONTINUITY

Abstract

This thesis presents a study on competitive authoritarian regime transitions through an analysis of UMNO in Malaysia and the PAP in Singapore. Competitive authoritarian regimes are able to resist regime change through its manipulation of state institutions and resources. By leveraging these institutions and resources, incumbent parties are able to stay in power through many electoral cycles. However, even with continued manipulation of these institutions and resources, some competitive authoritarian regimes, such as UMNO in GE14, still lose power and collapse. In this thesis, I will build upon the existing literature to offer an explanation for the continuity and collapse of long-standing competitive authoritarian regimes such as UMNO in Malaysia. Through an empirical analysis of four general elections in Malaysia and Singapore between 2011 and 2018, I argue that the collapse or continuity of these competitive authoritarian regimes hinges on the presence or absence of elite defections to strategic opposition coalitions. Significant elite defections from the incumbent party to strategic opposition coalitions will increase the likelihood of a regime collapse. In the absence of significant elite defections, it is likely that the regime will endure.