SEASONALITY OF CHINESE BIRTHS IN SINGAPORE, MALAYSIA, HONG KONG, TAIWAN

Abstract

The seasonality of Chinese births is correlated with the marriage patterns and the nature of this relationship is explainable by the cultural factors. The Chinese follow their zodiac to determine the timing of their marriages and their children's births. Seasonal variations of births as the product of those marriage patterns are a reflection of these cultural factors. This exercise attempts to analyse the possible existence of the birth seasonality from the Singapore context. The live-births by monthly occurrence are used for analysis from 1959-1986, while the marriages by monthly registration are analysed from 1959-1936. These data are smoothed using 12-month moving averages to derive the trends. In addition, these data series are decomposed and deseasonalized. In the process, we can see the population trend, the peaks and troughs in each month for marriages and births, and the deseasonalized marriage and birth patterns as well. The Chinese births peak in October and these correspond with the conceptions taking place during the Lunar New Year. But the marriage trough is found during this period. This is because of the time lag resulting from the date of registration and the actual tea ceremony for marriage. The exercise extends the similar approach to Hong Kong, Taiwan and Peninsula Malaysia to determine the possible existence of this birth seasonality. Their births also peak in October-November which may be a result of the Lunar New Year too. Moreover, the births trough in April-May are probably the result of the Hungry Ghost Festival. An interesting fact derived from the analyses is the negative relationship between the population growth and the economic development. Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore with similar economic development are facing a possible decline in population growth. But this is not in the case of Malaysia where its economic development is low relative to them. In sum, there are non-cultural factors affecting the population decline. But culture, nonetheless, plays a dominant role in the seasonal variations in the birth time series.