STRUCTURE AND SHIFT-SHARE ANALYSIS OF RETAILING IN SINGAPORE

Abstract

This study investigates the state of retailing in Singapore from a macro perspective instead of the usual consumer behavior aspects. Firstly, the issue of retail evolution in Singapore is traced - from the pre-sixties to the present eighties - where important developments are identified. This period also happens to coincide with significant changes in retailing in terms of the shifts in retail areas, the growth in retail facilities, and the emergence of new institutional forms. Public policies, changing lifestyle, growing affluence, and other environment factors which have significantly influenced the course of retailing in Singapore are discussed. This is then followed by an analysis of· the retail structure between 1975 and 1985 whereby the sector's strengths and weaknesses are identified and evaluated. Two key parameters, retail sales and the number of detail establishments, are analysed with respect to merchandise group &, type of legal organisation, employment size, turnover size, capital, and size of premises occupied. Further analysis involves the computation of a rough productivity index to gauge the changes in retail productivity over time. Also, various indices of distribution are computed to allow for retail trade comparison with selected countries. Finally, a technique, known as shift-share analysis, is proposed as a method for identifying retail opportunities. This technique has been used extensively in regional economics and is adapted here to identify the leading and lagging retail sectors on the basis of growth rate. To facilitate cross-sectors comparison, an arbitrary measure, known as the relative index, is proposed; in addition, the analysis is enhanced through the use of a pictorial representation, called the lead-lag diagram, which allow the results to be captured in a visual manner. While shift-share analysis has distinct advantages over other methods of determining market attractiveness, the limitations restricting its practical usefulness are also recognised.