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|Title:||ELDERSHIELD: DOES IT SHIELD YOU FROM THE LONG-TERM CARE COST OF DISABILITY?||Authors:||CHUA HELIN ABIGAIL||Keywords:||ElderShield, long-term care, adequacy, multi-state model, Monte-Carlo simulations, existing illnesses||Issue Date:||9-Apr-2018||Citation:||CHUA HELIN ABIGAIL (2018-04-09). ELDERSHIELD: DOES IT SHIELD YOU FROM THE LONG-TERM CARE COST OF DISABILITY?. ScholarBank@NUS Repository.||Abstract:||Long-term care (LTC) insurance in Singapore, also known as ElderShield, is currently the only social safety net in place to combat healthcare expenditure arising from LTC needs. It is an opt-out scheme that provides monthly cash payouts for a limited duration to those with severe disability. This thesis explores the adequacy of ElderShield in reducing LTC cost with actuarial modelling and simulations. Using data from the Ministry of Health and other research studies, we construct a multi-state model based on the Markov process and input transition probabilities for different health states to perform actuarial calculations. Monte-Carlo simulations are subsequently conducted to assess the adequacy of ElderShield, where we found that only 13% of LTC cost can be covered with ElderShield payouts. Finally, we investigate the impact of two policy changes to enhance the coverage of ElderShield and its feasibility from the insurer’s perspective.||URI:||http://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/handle/10635/146968|
|Appears in Collections:||Bachelor's Theses|
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