The Impact of Immigration on Native Fertility Rate: An Empirical Study from the Mariel Boatlift.

Abstract

This study focuses on the response of native fertility to immigration shocks. Following the Mariel Boatlift that increased Miami's total population by 5.5 percent in 1980, I examine the changes in fertility rate of Miami's native Black and White community. Applying the Synthetic Control method with data from the Current Population Survey, I find that the general fertility rate decreased more in Miami than in the comparison groups between 1982 and 1986. This suggests a negative impact of immigration on native fertility rate. Findings from this study are tenure asymmetric - native homeowners in Miami experienced little or no reduction in fertility rate while native renters experienced a significant fall in their fertility. I also exploit the impact of immigration on fertility intentions among Miami's native residents. The results are largely consistent with the findings for general fertility rate.