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Title: A statistical model for the transmission on infectious diseases
Authors: WANG WEI
Keywords: mathematical models, transmission, infectious diseases, TSIR model, CAIM, prediction
Issue Date: 25-Jan-2008
Citation: WANG WEI (2008-01-25). A statistical model for the transmission on infectious diseases. ScholarBank@NUS Repository.
Abstract: The impact of the outbreak of an infectious disease on human and animals is enormous in terms of social and economic consequences. Many mathematical models have been developed to make predictions about disease dynamics and to determine control strategies. However, most existing mathematical models are based on a system of differential equations with lots of unknown parameters which are difficult to estimate statistically. Furthermore, these models need the effective number of susceptibles, which is also difficult to calculate and define. In this thesis, we propose a simple and practical statistical model: the cumulative alertness infection model (CAIM) that only considers the reported number of cases. We also apply CAIM to the real data of several infectious diseases to check its validation. Our findings show that our proposed model can fit the observed data well. These results indicate that CAIM is helpful in making predictions about infectious disease dynamics.
Appears in Collections:Master's Theses (Open)

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