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Title: Oil price shocks, income, and democracy
Authors: Brückner, M. 
Ciccone, A.
Tesei, A.
Issue Date: 2012
Citation: Brückner, M.,Ciccone, A.,Tesei, A. (2012). Oil price shocks, income, and democracy. Review of Economics and Statistics 94 (2) : 389-399. ScholarBank@NUS Repository.
Abstract: We examine the effect of oil price fluctuations on democratic institutions over the 1960-2007 period. We also exploit the very persistent response of income to oil price fluctuations to study the effect of persistent (oil-price-driven) income shocks on democracy. Our results indicate that countries with greater net oil exports over GDP see improvements in democratic institutions following upturns in international oil prices. We estimate that a 1 percentage point increase in per capita GDP growth due to a positive oil price shock increases the Polity democracy score by around 0.2 percentage points on impact and by around 2 percentage points in the long run. The effect on the probability of a democratic transition is around 0.4 percentage points. © 2012 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Source Title: Review of Economics and Statistics
ISSN: 00346535
DOI: 10.1162/REST_a_00201
Appears in Collections:Staff Publications

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