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|Title:||Oil price shocks, income, and democracy||Authors:||Brückner, M.
|Issue Date:||2012||Citation:||Brückner, M.,Ciccone, A.,Tesei, A. (2012). Oil price shocks, income, and democracy. Review of Economics and Statistics 94 (2) : 389-399. ScholarBank@NUS Repository. https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00201||Abstract:||We examine the effect of oil price fluctuations on democratic institutions over the 1960-2007 period. We also exploit the very persistent response of income to oil price fluctuations to study the effect of persistent (oil-price-driven) income shocks on democracy. Our results indicate that countries with greater net oil exports over GDP see improvements in democratic institutions following upturns in international oil prices. We estimate that a 1 percentage point increase in per capita GDP growth due to a positive oil price shock increases the Polity democracy score by around 0.2 percentage points on impact and by around 2 percentage points in the long run. The effect on the probability of a democratic transition is around 0.4 percentage points. © 2012 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.||Source Title:||Review of Economics and Statistics||URI:||http://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/handle/10635/124319||ISSN:||00346535||DOI:||10.1162/REST_a_00201|
|Appears in Collections:||Staff Publications|
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