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Title: Global Mortality Estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR Project: A Modeling Study
Authors: Simonsen, L.
Spreeuwenberg, P.
Lustig, R.
Taylor, R.J.
Fleming, D.M.
Kroneman, M.
Van Kerkhove, M.D.
Mounts, A.W.
Paget, W.J.
Echenique, H.
Savy, V.
Muscatello, D.
MacIntyre, C.R.
Dwyer, D.E.
Azziz-Baumgartner, E.
Homaira, N.
Moura, F.E.A.
Schuck, C.
Akwar, H.
Schanzer, D.
Fuentes, R.
Olea, A.
Sotomayor, V.
Feng, L.
Yu, H.
Mazick, A.
Mølbak, K.
Nielsen, J.
Carrat, F.
Lemaitre, M.
Buchholz, U.
Schweiger, B.
Höhle, M.
Vesenbeckh, S.
Cowling, B.
Leung, G.
Tsang, T.
Chuang, S.-K.
Bromberg, M.
Kaufman, Z.
Sugaya, N.
Oka Ezoe, K.
Hayashi, S.
Matsuda, M.
Lopez-Gatell, H.
Alpuche-Aranda, C.
Noyola, D.
Chowell, G.
van Asten, L.
Meijer, A.
van den Wijngaard, K.
van der Sande, M.
Baker, M.
Zhang, J.
Benavides, J.G.
Munayco, C.
Laguna-Torres, A.
Rabczenko, D.
Wojtyniak, B.
Park, S.-H.
Lee, Y.-K.
Zolotusca, L.
Popovici, O.
Popescu, R.
Ang, L.W.
Cutter, J.
Lin, R.
Ma, S.
Chen, M. 
Lee, V.J. 
Prosenc, K.
Socan, M.
Cohen, C.
Larrauri, A.
de Mateo, S.
Méndez, L.S.
Sanz, C.D.
Andrews, N.
Green, H.K.
Pebody, R.
Saei, A.
Shay, D.
Viboud, C.
Issue Date: Nov-2013
Citation: Simonsen, L., Spreeuwenberg, P., Lustig, R., Taylor, R.J., Fleming, D.M., Kroneman, M., Van Kerkhove, M.D., Mounts, A.W., Paget, W.J., Echenique, H., Savy, V., Muscatello, D., MacIntyre, C.R., Dwyer, D.E., Azziz-Baumgartner, E., Homaira, N., Moura, F.E.A., Schuck, C., Akwar, H., Schanzer, D., Fuentes, R., Olea, A., Sotomayor, V., Feng, L., Yu, H., Mazick, A., Mølbak, K., Nielsen, J., Carrat, F., Lemaitre, M., Buchholz, U., Schweiger, B., Höhle, M., Vesenbeckh, S., Cowling, B., Leung, G., Tsang, T., Chuang, S.-K., Bromberg, M., Kaufman, Z., Sugaya, N., Oka Ezoe, K., Hayashi, S., Matsuda, M., Lopez-Gatell, H., Alpuche-Aranda, C., Noyola, D., Chowell, G., van Asten, L., Meijer, A., van den Wijngaard, K., van der Sande, M., Baker, M., Zhang, J., Benavides, J.G., Munayco, C., Laguna-Torres, A., Rabczenko, D., Wojtyniak, B., Park, S.-H., Lee, Y.-K., Zolotusca, L., Popovici, O., Popescu, R., Ang, L.W., Cutter, J., Lin, R., Ma, S., Chen, M., Lee, V.J., Prosenc, K., Socan, M., Cohen, C., Larrauri, A., de Mateo, S., Méndez, L.S., Sanz, C.D., Andrews, N., Green, H.K., Pebody, R., Saei, A., Shay, D., Viboud, C. (2013-11). Global Mortality Estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR Project: A Modeling Study. PLoS Medicine 10 (11) : -. ScholarBank@NUS Repository.
Abstract: Background:Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries.Methods and Findings:We obtained weekly virology and underlying cause-of-death mortality time series for 2005-2009 for 20 countries covering ∼35% of the world population. We applied a multivariate linear regression model to estimate pandemic respiratory mortality in each collaborating country. We then used these results plus ten country indicators in a multiple imputation model to project the mortality burden in all world countries. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 mo of 2009. The majority (62%-85%) were attributed to persons under 65 y of age. We observed a striking regional heterogeneity, with almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000-249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average pre-pandemic season, with only 19% in persons
Source Title: PLoS Medicine
ISSN: 15491277
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001558
Appears in Collections:Staff Publications

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