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|Title:||Fuzzy probability in engineering analyses|
|Authors:||Beer, M. |
|Citation:||Beer, M.,Ferson, S. (2011). Fuzzy probability in engineering analyses. Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Analysis, Modeling, and Management - Proceedings of the ICVRAM 2011 and ISUMA 2011 Conferences : 53-61. ScholarBank@NUS Repository. https://doi.org/10.1061/41170(400)7|
|Abstract:||Predicting the behavior and reliability of engineering structures and systems is often plagued by uncertainty and imprecision caused by sparse data, poor measurements and subjective information. Accounting for such limitations complicates the mathematical modeling required to obtain realistic results in engineering analyses. The framework of imprecise probabilities provides a mathematical basis to deal with these problems which involve both probabilistic and non-probabilistic sources of uncertainty. A common feature of the various concepts of imprecise probabilities is the consideration of an entire set of probabilistic models in one analysis. But there are differences between the concepts in the mathematical description of this set and in the theoretical connection to the probabilistic models involved. This study is focused on fuzzy probabilities, which combine a probabilistic characterization of variability with a fuzzy characterization of imprecision. We discuss how fuzzy modeling can allow a more nuanced approach than interval-based concepts. The application in an engineering analysis is demonstrated by means of an example. Copyright © ASCE 2011.|
|Source Title:||Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Analysis, Modeling, and Management - Proceedings of the ICVRAM 2011 and ISUMA 2011 Conferences|
|Appears in Collections:||Staff Publications|
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