Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://doi.org/10.1109/ICMIT.2006.262172
Title: Forecasting of mobile subscriptions in Asia pacific using bass diffusion model
Authors: Wenrong, W.
Xie, M. 
Tsui, K.
Issue Date: 2006
Source: Wenrong, W.,Xie, M.,Tsui, K. (2006). Forecasting of mobile subscriptions in Asia pacific using bass diffusion model. ICMIT 2006 Proceedings - 2006 IEEE International Conference on Management of Innovation and Technology 1 : 300-303. ScholarBank@NUS Repository. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICMIT.2006.262172
Abstract: In today's dynamic world, mobile communication has changed the lifestyle of many people. Forecasting of mobile subscriptions in a country is one of the research areas. In this paper, Bass diffusion model is used to forecast the number of mobile service subscribers in major countries in Asia Pacific. Technically, we compare two forecasting methods: Bass diffusion model and diffusion by analogy. One is popular in research and the other is commonly applied in practice. Two estimation methods for Bass diffusion model are also compared: Adaptive Nonlinear Least Square (Adaptive NLS) and Genetic Algorithm (GA). The results show that Bass diffusion model in general performs better than diffusion by analogy based on the in-sample Sum of Squared Errors (SSE) and out-of-sample SSE. On the other hand, Adaptive NLS and Genetic Algorithms are comparable in generating reasonably sound forecasting results. © 2006 IEEE.
Source Title: ICMIT 2006 Proceedings - 2006 IEEE International Conference on Management of Innovation and Technology
URI: http://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/handle/10635/72332
ISBN: 1424401488
DOI: 10.1109/ICMIT.2006.262172
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