Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/handle/10635/45075
Title: Modeling the impact of sudden environmental changes on visitor arrival forecasts: The case of the gulf war
Authors: Chan, Y.-M. 
Hui, T.-K. 
Yuen, E. 
Issue Date: 1999
Source: Chan, Y.-M.,Hui, T.-K.,Yuen, E. (1999). Modeling the impact of sudden environmental changes on visitor arrival forecasts: The case of the gulf war. Journal of Travel Research 37 (4) : 391-394. ScholarBank@NUS Repository.
Abstract: Most forecasting models for tourist arrivals were constructed under the assumption of only minor changes in the environment. The performance of forecasting models in situations of sudden, drastic environmental change(s) has not been given much attention. Using the Gulf War as an example of sudden environmental change, the present article explored the relative performance of different forecasting models. The findings showed that in terms of forecasting accuracy, the naive II model was the best in dealing with unstable data. © 1999 Sage Publications, Inc.
Source Title: Journal of Travel Research
URI: http://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/handle/10635/45075
ISSN: 00472875
Appears in Collections:Staff Publications

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