Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/handle/10635/38790
Title: Flexible Engineering System Design with Multiple Exogenous Uncertainties and Change Propagation
Authors: HU JUNFEI
Keywords: flexibility, uncertainty, engineering system design, change propagation, real option, conceptual design
Issue Date: 23-Aug-2012
Source: HU JUNFEI (2012-08-23). Flexible Engineering System Design with Multiple Exogenous Uncertainties and Change Propagation. ScholarBank@NUS Repository.
Abstract: Designing an engineering system that performs well under uncertainty is a constant challenge faced by system engineers. This thesis considers embedding flexibility into the engineering design to ensure better lifecycle performance. It focuses on identifying valuable opportunities to embed flexibility in engineering systems. A concept generation and selection framework is first proposed to intuitively select the competitive concepts without uncertainty. To further embed flexibility in the design concepts, a sensitivity-based method and a risk susceptibility analysis are proposed. The proposed methodologies select and rank a set of system elements by predicting and analyzing the effect of change propagation. They identify and limit the number of flexible design concepts to analyze at an early conceptual stage. The proposed methods are demonstrated and evaluated in a High-Speed Rail system. Results show that the flexible design can reduce downside risks and capitalize on upside opportunities significantly.
URI: http://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/handle/10635/38790
Appears in Collections:Ph.D Theses (Open)

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