Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/handle/10635/30750
Title: Rainfall Forecasting And Its Applications In Flood Early Warning Systems.
Authors: HE SHAN
Keywords: Rainfall Forecasting, flood, Numerical Weather Prediction, Radar Nowcasting, Weather Research and Foreacasting Model, Translation Model
Issue Date: 25-Mar-2011
Source: HE SHAN (2011-03-25). Rainfall Forecasting And Its Applications In Flood Early Warning Systems.. ScholarBank@NUS Repository.
Abstract: One of the important factors in reservoir management involves employment of a flood early warning system that predicts large surface runoff before their actual arrival in a holistic and integrated manner. For urban scales, heavy precipitation events need to be forecast to be able to be prepared for a flash flood. This becomes more important in a changing climate should more heavy rainfall events occur. This is in turn linked to reservoir management. The overall objective of this study is to improve the forecasting accuracy of the precipitation in the Singapore region by means of rainfall forecasting and nowcasting. The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) was applied over Singapore and its neighboring region for rainfall forecasting. Its performance was evaluated on various rainfall events to ensure its ability to provide credible forecasts. A rainfall nowcasting method using a Translation Model (TM) was also applied, which incorporates the radar measurements. Based on the results obtained from the TM and the WRF, a combined rainfall forecasting was constructed. Weighting factors of 0.7 and 0.3 have been used and assigned to results from TM and WRF, respectively. Results presented in this thesis consist of the individual results from WRF and TM and the results from the Combined Rainfall Forecasting. The combined rainfall forecasting covered the full-span of 24 hours forecasting by combining the WRF results and TM results to provide an improved rainfall forecasting. Combined rainfall forecasting provides more accurate results than rainfall forecasts from a single combined member. Finally, an urban rainfall-runoff model SOBEK was implemented to simulate the flood and a reasonably good performance shows this model can be used for flood forecasts.
URI: http://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/handle/10635/30750
Appears in Collections:Ph.D Theses (Open)

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