Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/handle/10635/16029
Title: Singapore Housing Market: An Econometric Model and a Housing Affordability Index.
Authors: GU JIAYING
Keywords: housing market modelling; long-run housing affordability; lifetime income; Singapore
Issue Date: 3-Sep-2008
Source: GU JIAYING (2008-09-03). Singapore Housing Market: An Econometric Model and a Housing Affordability Index.. ScholarBank@NUS Repository.
Abstract: In this thesis, we build a structural model for the private residential property market in Singapore. The model contains five behavioral equations and two identities, based on an adaptation of the traditional stock-flow framework. It is able to account for the private housing demand, private and public housing supply and vacancy conditions in the market. Given the good performance of the model, we carry out scenario analyses to investigate the impact of several policy variables. Beyond studying the housing market mechanism in a structural way, we develop a new index to assess the affordability of private housing in Singapore. Different from the commonly used measure that compares property price with current income, this new index links property price to household life time income. It addresses the issue that housing choice, though likely to be curbed by short-run financing restrictions, should be a decision based on assessment of long-run income. The index helps us to see how the affordability of private residential housing evolves over the years in Singapore. It also provides a long-run perspective of the housing price inflation for policy makers.
URI: http://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/handle/10635/16029
Appears in Collections:Master's Theses (Open)

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