The trade and industrial impact of regional trade arrangements in East Asia

Abstract

This thesis attempts to postulate the trade and industrial effects of potential RTAs in East Asia. The thesis first addresses the issues of the rise of regional economic integration, and in particularly the rise of regionalism in East Asia.This thesis uses a Computable General Equilibrium model to simulate the formation of a variety of different RTAs to generate possible effects of potential RTAs in East Asia. It looks at the impact of such RTAs on the welfare and real GDP of member countries. The analysis is carried further by breaking down the simulation results to individual sectors in member countries. In addition, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index is used to analyze patterns of specialization and concentration in countries and industries.The aim of this thesis is to contribute to the literature on trade arrangements and their impact in East Asia but also to provide information for possible policy implications.