Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.2011.11-0149
Title: Validation of probability equation and decision tree in predicting subsequent dengue hemorrhagic fever in adult dengue inpatients in Singapore
Authors: Thein, T.L.
Leo, Y.-S.
Lee, V.J. 
Sun, Y.
Lye, D.C.
Issue Date: Nov-2011
Citation: Thein, T.L., Leo, Y.-S., Lee, V.J., Sun, Y., Lye, D.C. (2011-11). Validation of probability equation and decision tree in predicting subsequent dengue hemorrhagic fever in adult dengue inpatients in Singapore. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 85 (5) : 942-945. ScholarBank@NUS Repository. https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.2011.11-0149
Abstract: We developed a probability equation and a decision tree from 1,973 predominantly dengue serotype 1 hospitalized adult dengue patients in 2004 to predict progression to dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), applied in our clinic since March 2007. The parameters predicting DHF were clinical bleeding, high serum urea, low serum protein, and low lymphocyte proportion. This study validated these in a predominantly dengue serotype 2 cohort in 2007. The 1,017 adult dengue patients admitted to Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore had a median age of 35 years. Of 933 patients without DHF on admission, 131 progressed to DHF. The probability equation predicted DHF with a sensitivity (Sn) of 94%, specificity (Sp) 17%, positive predictive value (PPV) 16%, and negative predictive value (NPV) 94%. The decision tree predicted DHF with a Sn of 99%, Sp 12%, PPV 16%, and NPV 99%. Both tools performed well despite a switch in predominant dengue serotypes. Copyright © 2011 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.
Source Title: American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
URI: http://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/handle/10635/109730
ISSN: 00029637
DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.2011.11-0149
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